What the numbers are telling us about a market under pressure
Data window: Dec ‘25 – May '26
The first five months of 2026 handed the restaurant industry a stress test.
Gas prices climbed nearly 40% in ten weeks. Food-away-from-home inflation held at 3.6% year-over-year. And by March, 46% of operators were reporting lower traffic—a sharp reversal from the gains reported just a month earlier.
Against that backdrop, PAR analyzed loyalty data across thousands of restaurant and foodservice locations to understand how consumers and operators actually responded. The findings heading into summer are ones operators need to pay attention to.
Loyalty members are holding. The broader market isn't.
The headline number is hard to ignore: across PAR’s loyalty footprint, sales grew +14.3% year-over-year from January through May. Guests were up +10.1%. Transactions up +9.7%. Meanwhile, industry forecasts put full-year traffic growth at under 1%.
That gap reflects what happens when consumers tighten up: they consolidate spending toward brands they trust and programs that reward them. The loyalty channel didn’t just hold — it pulled significantly ahead of the broader market. Right now, loyalty isn’t a marketing perk. It’s a traffic strategy.
Convenience stores: the gas-price squeeze in real time
The clearest macro signal came from convenience stores, where new loyalty membership hit +33.7% year-over-year as gas prices spiked. But member behavior underneath told a different story: per-member visit frequency dropped from 2.26 to 2.10, and basket-size growth slowed from 8–11% before spring to just 2–5% after.
More members, fewer visits each, smaller baskets per stop. That’s the fuel-price squeeze written in loyalty data — consumers making the trip because they have to, and cutting discretionary spend once inside.
Pizza: fewer occasions, bigger orders
Pizza data surfaced a structural shift. Transactions fell –9.0% year-over-year while average check size grew +15.6% — roughly four times the rate of restaurant menu inflation. The guest base was essentially flat (–1.0%). It’s the same customers, ordering less often but spending more when they do.
Seasonal patterns reinforce it. In 2025, the pizza category grew its guest base +13% from January to May. This year, that lift nearly disappeared — just +0.6% over the same window. The category is consolidating into fewer, larger occasions, and winning those occasions is harder than it was a year ago.
Chicken and burgers: two very different volume stories
At the restaurant category level, chicken concepts are outpacing burger concepts — and the data shows a clear difference in how each is growing.
Chicken restaurants delivered +24.0% sales growth and +27.1% guest growth year-over-year, with check size essentially flat (–0.9%). More guests, more visits, no inflation crutch.
Burger restaurants grew sales +6.7%, but transactions fell –3.1% while average check climbed +10.1%. Revenue is holding on larger tickets, not more visits — and within 2026, seasonal sales growth decelerated nearly 11 percentage points versus the same window last year.
Both categories are growing sales. But one is building through frequency and guest acquisition. The other is relying on ticket size to hold revenue while losing occasions.
The categories winning right now
A few standouts in the data worth noting:
Beverage led all categories with
+56.6%
Breakfast grew sales
+32.8%
Mexican was one of the few categories where operators successfully moved prices up in 2026
Operators are pulling back on discounts. Even during holidays.
Discount rates fell year-over-year in 18 of 19 weeks tracked, running roughly 1.5–2 percentage points lower than the same week in 2025. In some weeks the drop exceeded 4 points — and this held through Valentine’s Day, March Madness, and Mother’s Day.
The tension is real: cost-of-living pressure is rising for consumers at the exact moment operators are pulling back on the discounts that ease it. Both sides are making rational decisions. The friction between them is visible in the data.
What this means heading into summer
Three reads the data points to:
Frequency is the dominant growth lever for most categories.
Occasion-based categories need to work harder.
Promotional discipline is increasing.
The broader industry is navigating one of the more complex consumer environments in recent memory. PAR’s loyalty data shows what’s working inside it.
##
Data Delivered is a PAR Technology series analyzing loyalty and transaction data across the foodservice industry.
About this data
This summary, published by PAR, presents insights and trends based on deidentified and aggregated data across its platform, comparing metrics from December 29, 2025 to May 12, 2026. The information provided is for general informational purposes only based upon recent trends and does not include any forward-looking statements. PAR makes no representations or warranties of any kind regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information, text, graphics, links, or other items contained in this report. PAR does not guarantee that you will achieve any specific results, and any reliance on the information is strictly at your own risk. In no event will PAR or its affiliates be liable for any loss or damage arising out of, or in connection with, the use of or reliance upon this report, including, without limitation, any indirect or consequential loss or damage. This report should not be construed as a representation or indication of the operational performance of PAR or its reported financial results.
About PAR Technology
PAR Technology Corporation (NYSE: PAR) delivers an agentic operating platform that enables smarter, more consistent operations for multi‑unit brands across restaurant, retail, and high‑volume commerce. PAR’s platform brings together mission‑critical software—point of sale, digital ordering, loyalty, payments, and back‑office systems—along with hardware and data to orchestrate decisions and workflows across systems, locations, and guest touchpoints in real time. Designed to drive measurable outcomes, PAR helps brands improve efficiency, deliver better experiences, and make every store more profitable. Learn more at partech.com.
Sydney Schultice is the Corporate Communications Manager at PAR Technology, leading external communications strategy, including press, executive positioning, and thought leadership. She holds an M.A. in Strategic Communication from La Salle University and brings nearly a decade of PR experience across agency and in-house roles. Sydney is passionate about proactive storytelling, finding the narratives that resonate, building credibility, and moving a business forward.
